Problem 10.8 Easy Free

Expected Sum of Bills Drawn

A box contains 4 ten-dollar bills, 3 twenty-dollar bills, and 1 hundred-dollar bill. You draw 7 of these 8 bills uniformly at random without replacement. Find the expected total value of the bills drawn.

Work it out, then compare with the answer.

SolutionShow the worked solution

Total value in the box: 4⋅10+3⋅20+100=$2004\cdot 10+3\cdot 20+100=\$200 over 88 bills, so the mean bill is $25\$25.

Label the bills 1,…,81,\dots,8 with values v1,…,v8v_1,\dots,v_8. Let IjI_j indicate that bill jj is drawn. By symmetry each bill is drawn with probability P(Ij=1)=78\mathbb{P}(I_j=1)=\frac{7}{8}. The total drawn is S=∑jvjIjS=\sum_j v_j I_j. By linearity,

E[S]=∑j=18vj P(Ij=1)=78⋅200=175.\mathbb{E}[S]=\sum_{j=1}^{8} v_j\,\mathbb{P}(I_j=1)=\frac{7}{8}\cdot 200=175.

Equivalently, each of the 77 draws is marginally a uniform bill, with mean $25\$25, so E[S]=7⋅25\mathbb{E}[S]=7\cdot 25.

Alternative. Exactly one bill is left behind, and it is uniform on the eight. Its expected value is 2008=25\frac{200}{8}=25, so E[S]=200−25=175\mathbb{E}[S]=200-25=175.

E[S]=$175\boxed{\mathbb{E}[S]=\$175}

Key idea. Each bill is drawn with probability 78\frac{7}{8}, so linearity gives 78\frac78 of the total without any joint distribution.